By Zaki Kaf Al-Ghazal
In politics, “the first 100 days” is generally considered to be a marker as to how well a politician has settled into office, how they’re getting on with advancing their agenda, and how much trouble might lie ahead.
The first 100 days have passed since the Assad regime was deposed on 8 December last year, and there are a number of matters to consider. Whilst there are huge challenges, there are encouraging signs that interim President Ahmed Al-Sharaa and his administration can build an inclusive and democratic Syria.
The clashes on the coast which have dominated recent news headlines are an early challenge for the new administration. On Thursday, 6 March, remnants of the deposed Assad regime, many of them in civilian clothes, ambushed the state’s security forces in a coordinated assault which was easily the biggest challenge to post-Assad Syria.
This led to vigilante attacks by groups in the local area which escalated the violence. It was, essentially, an attempted coup, and the pro Assad terrorist forces held Jableh, near Latakia, for a few hours until the security forces wrested control back. Early indications are that Iran and Hezbollah had a role to play; the pro-Assad forces were kitted out with foreign communication systems.
And whilst Al-Sharaa was quick to respond with the announcement of the formation of an independent committee to investigate the killings and a warning to security forces and civilians not to engage in sectarian bloodshed — with repercussions for those who do — there are examples of this taking place.
With emotions still running high in post-Assad Syria, this is no surprise, but people must be held accountable, and misinformation over the days of the killings inflamed matters further. The use by pro Assad remnants of old videos showing Assad regime Shabiha killing civilians is ironic, but led to a frenzy of posts on social media.
The adrenaline is still running high; cooler heads must prevail and the terrorist groups that attacked the security and police forces as well as many civilians in Latakia, Tartus, Baniyas and Jableh must be arrested and held accountable. Interestingly, some of those who were responsible for these attacks were initially pardoned after Assad’s fall.
Moreover, the Israeli threat in the south west is extremely concerning, and occupation regime Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made no secret of his disdain for Syria’s new direction. Israel has essentially invaded a small portion of Syria and has stated that it will seek to control the area for an “unlimited” time and also control the buffer zone.
This is a flagrant breach of international law, and it is worth noting that the Israeli annexation of the Golan Heights in 1981 (which were occupied in 1967) was never truly resisted by the Assad regime.
Israel’s belligerence poses a risk to Syria’s stability and territorial integrity, but with the international community quiet on the matter, it is an issue that Al-Sharaa and his regional allies will need to manage.
Israel has also been encouraging minorities to resist and oppose the new government. This was seen in Jableh, with some Alawite groups on the Syrian coast asking for international support, and the Druze head cleric in Suwaida in south Syria, Hikmat Al-Jajri, refusing to fully recognise the new Syrian administration despite many of the local population being keen to do so.
Interestingly, at the same time, some Druze clerics accepted an Israeli invitation to visit a religious site in the north of historic Palestine in a move to demonstrate a measure of normalisation with the occupation state.
With regard to territorial integrity, the agreement with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to integrate the group into the new national army and achieve a nationwide ceasefire is welcome. The Kurdish led authority has been ruling the north east since 2012, and the agreement stipulates that all public institutions will be governed by the state.
Furthermore, it will recognise Kurdish rights which were long denied under Assad. This is a positive step towards national unity and builds on the engagement with other minority groups over the past few weeks. As Syria rebuilds itself after a regime that weaponised minorities and used sectarianism to rule, the collaboration and engagement between different groups and the state is crucial for a genuinely inclusive state.
It is seen as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people and the number of bilateral meetings that Foreign Minister Asaad Al-Shaibani and Al-Sharaa have had with regional states and beyond is impressive, given that the new administration has only been in place since December.
Al-Sharaa attended the first Arab League meeting of the post Assad era last month, and whilst not all heads of states would have been happy to see him there in, there is an acceptance that a new administration governs Syria now.
He has made it clear that Syria does not want any problems with its neighbours, and that a state bruised after 50 years of brutal Assad rule and a 14-year war waged by the regime against Syrian civilians will in no way be used as a launch-pad to attack Israel.
There has been progress in lifting sanctions, with the UK and EU both agreeing to do so in a number of areas, conditional upon good governance and evidence of progress towards an inclusive state being built. Al-Shaibani might be attending a donor summit in Brussels in the coming days, whilst Al-Sharaa has been invited to Paris to meet Emanuel Macron. Both are positive signs.
The US is yet to announce any lifting of sanctions however, and its economic and political power means that unless this happens, reconstruction will struggle. The new Syrian administration has been vocal in its lobbying efforts in this space.
The recent national dialogue conference in Syria in late February was a step in the right direction as the administration consults citizens on the creation of a new state. As with any new initiative, the results were mixed. Concerns were raised about the last-minute nature of the conference, with some participants being invited just two days in advance, and the fact that a day was felt to be insufficient.
However, the opportunity for discussion and debate and the efforts to start building a national framework whilst the state rids itself of the remnants of the Assad regime and the Baathist institutions is to be commended.
Syria needs time. Like any patient who has endured significant, long term trauma, recovery is a process, and institutional challenges will not be solved overnight. Legal accountability for Assad-era officials is at a standstill, and citizens still await news of the preservation of Sednaya and other prisons to mark the crimes of the Assad regime.
The new constitutional declaration is welcome and eagle-eyed observers will notice an interesting piece of symmetry: the old constitution through Law 49 stipulated that membership of the Muslim Brotherhood was punishable by death, whilst the new declaration through Article 49 stipulates that glorifying or denying Assad regime crimes — the Syrian Holocaust — is a criminal offence.
There is more work to do, but early signs are positive. A new state is slowly and surely being built in Syria. – (Middle East Monitor)
Orginal article https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20250317-syrias-100-days-of-opportunities-and-obstacles-after-assad/
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